Ryan Zimmerman on statistics and ‘nerds’
By Dan Steinberg
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If you’re an athlete and you’d like to find yourself in more blog headlines, say something about statistics and nerds. Works every time.
倘若你是一位運動員，你免不了會發現自己的名字常出現在許多部落格文章的標題上，內文不外乎是些數據、一般人不太會去接觸那種。這屢見不鮮。
Ryan Zimmerman was the latest to discover this truth, after starring in the last section of Friday’s Boz column.
好比國民當家三壘手Ryan Zimmerman上週五便出現在專欄作家Thomas Boswell文章中最後一段。
Boswell是這麼寫的：
The reigning kings of geekdom reside at Baseball Prospectus. They’re so respected inside the industry that the Nats have a “Baseball Prospectus Day” at Nats Park on July 7. PECOTA, a Baseball Prospectus site, uses computer simulations to project performance. They think the Nats have a 41 percent chance to reach the playoffs and a 3.9 percent to win the Series (down from 11 percent preseason). The Orioles currently have only a 17.9 percent playoff chances, in part because they’re in the tough AL East, a minuscule 0.7 percent chance to win the Series….
那些支配著Prospectus的基克族（按：白話＝阿宅），他們在這一行（數據演算）極其受到尊敬，尊敬到什麼樣的程度？從今年七月七日國民會在球場辦個”Baseball Prospectus Day”便可略知一二（道奇也辦過，今年四月27日）。前不久Baseball Prospectus（以下簡稱BP）用電腦運算出本季國民有41%的機率可以晉級季後賽，並有3.9%的機率奪冠（從季前11%滑落到現在3.9%）；而金鶯呢，目前僅有17.9%的機會晉級季後賽，部分原因是因為他們處在頗難混的美聯東區，也因此...電腦運算出他們僅有0.7%的渺茫機率奪冠。
“How did that [model] work out for them the last couple of years? Not very well, right?” said Zimmerman. “That’s why nerds shouldn’t do that stuff.”
對此，國民老大哥Zimmerman回應道：「過去幾年他們的預測結果如何？不怎麼理想，對吧？這就是為什麼那些阿宅們該停止幹這些事啦！」
Nerds! “Ryan Zimmerman Thinks You Are All A Bunch Of Nerds,” wrote Deadspin. “Ryan Zimmerman thinks “nerds” should not do playoff projections,” wrote Hardball Talk. Nerds! said the rest of the Internet.
阿宅？！
Deadspin以此寫了篇「Zimmer認為你們只是一堆阿宅罷了」的文章，HBT也寫了篇「Zimmer認為阿宅們不該預測誰會晉級季後賽」。
（言下之意：那些阿宅，或說BP的阿宅們，請停下手邊的工作，出門涼快去吧～）
Well, Zimmerman was on ESPN 980′s Sports Fix Friday afternoon, and Thom Loverro — a longtime antagonist of stats lovers — brought up the nerds quote. (Audio here.) Zimmerman immediately groaned and laughed, saying he had made that nerds! quip “in casual talk” with Boz.
週五傍晚，Zimmer上了ESPN的廣播頻道，跟長期對數據頭不太爽的Thom Loverro意見交換了一下。言及「阿宅」，Zimmer馬上笑了一下，他說那些言論只是跟Boswell的閒聊罷了。
“I have nothing against nerds, believe me,” Zimmerman said. “I’m just, I’m so tired – not just in baseball, in every sport – of the new infatuation with stats and numbers and using this stuff to compare players. The best thing about sports is people can hit the same in the first inning and the ninth inning, but you’re trying to tell me that you’re gonna take someone other than Derek Jeter in the playoffs in the ninth inning? If Derek Jeter’s hitting .150, I’m taking Derek Jeter, compared to a guy hitting .450. That’s something that you can’t put in the numbers. You know, the new way to compare people, it’s been a hit, or whatever people want to call it. And some of it’s true; I’m not saying all of its wrong. But the great thing about sports is how people handle pressure and how people handle adversity, and there’s just no way that numbers can do that justice.”
Zimmer說：
「我跟那些阿宅之間沒啥啦～我沒不爽他們，相信我，我只是...單純有點厭倦了，厭倦那些...不僅僅是棒球，每項運動都存在著、著迷於用一些數據來比較球員的的狂熱者。」
「棒球這項運動最棒的地方就在於：從第一局伊始，乃至於道了第九局，球員打的東西都不會有啥差別（第一局的安打跟第九局的安打都一樣啊其實）。然而當你試圖要告訴我，你打算比較幾位球員季後賽第九局的打擊情形，當中卻不包含Derek Jeter？（Jeter生涯第九局表現不太好，打擊率0.241是所有局數中最低的）今天就算Jeter打擊率只有一成五，另外有位球員打擊率高達四成五，我還是會選擇Jeter，因為有些東西是數據無法衡量的。」
「最新竄起這種拿來比較球員的方式，對傳統的棒球是一種衝擊，又或者你要怎麼稱呼他，這都無妨。事實是：有一部分（這種新的方式）是正確的，我不會說那全是錯誤，但運動最最最美好的事物，該是觀賞那些運動員如何能頂住壓力、衝破逆境，這些都不是那些冷冰冰的數據所能顯現的。」
Loverro and Sheehan both chimed in, mostly in agreement, and then opened the floor to Zimmerman again.
Loverro與Sheehan一致認同Zimmerman的言論，並要他繼續說下去。
“It’s gotten, I don’t want to say out of hand, because it’s part of the game, and part of every sport now is this huge fantasy football market, or fantasy baseball,” Zimmerman said. “And it’s good for the game, because it gets us more fans who might have never paid attention to baseball before. And that’s what this game is all about, is getting fans and having people watch the game and grow the game. But it gets to a point sometimes where they do so many comparisons and so many stats. Just let people go out and play the game. It kind of gets away from what baseball’s really about.”
「但這些（阿宅們搞這堆有的沒的）...我並不想這麼說，因為這是球賽的一部分，許多運動的Fantasy Game都非常盛行，美式足球啦、棒球啦，市場很大、很有發展潛力，然而這似乎有點太過了。」Zimmer說：「不過這對球賽也有正向的影響，它讓許多過往可能從未注意到棒球的球迷們開始會看球，這其實跟球賽的目的一致哪：想辦法吸引更多的粉絲、讓人們開始看球、壯大棒球這項運動。不過發展至此，他們有時難免稍顯走偏，做了太多比較、用了太多數據。」
「何不就單純讓人們出門去享受球賽、讓球員專注於比賽吧？太多的數據，其實有些背離『棒球』真正的意涵了。」
Still, the hosts promised Zimmerman, he would hear more about this quote.
不過呢，兩位也跟Zimmer斷言道，他一定會聽到許多關於「阿宅發言」的餘波盪漾。（上面所提兩篇文章其實就是了）
“Oh, I woke up this morning and I already heard about it,” he said with a laugh. “I didn’t even remember it. I talk with Boz all the time. Boz is great, he’s one of the smartest writers out there and loves the game. And I woke up this morning, and honestly, I didn’t even remember saying that. We were just talking at my locker about stats, about things like that. I didn’t mean any harm by it. You know, whatever. It wasn’t meant to do any damage.”
Zimmer則說：
「噢，今早我起床時其實就有聽到啦XD 我已經有點忘了我跟Boswell說了些什麼，Boswell人挺不賴的，他是最慧黠的幾個寫手，也熱愛棒球。（又說了一次起床，略），我們只是在我的置物櫃旁閒聊些關於數據的東東，差不多就是我剛講的那些啦。我沒有冒犯的意思，這並非什麼攻擊性的言論。」
This nerd thinks it’s all good. And also would like more outtakes from the Boz locker room sessions.
那些「阿宅」在做的事情半點也沒錯誤，那段來自置物櫃旁的談話也是如此。
As for the Nats bats, Zimmerman was asked what hitters are saying to each other as they try to exit this season-long slump.
談到本季至今狀況相當低迷的國民（打線），Zimmer被問到：「選手間有在商討、嘗試如何去中止這樣的低潮嗎？」
“Nobody’s more frustrated than us,” he said. “And we might not show it. That’s just kind of how we’re wired. And we have to deal with the media and other people, but there’s nobody on the planet that’s more disappointed and frustrated than us right now. And we’re doing everything we can to work and try and get better and score more runs. At this level the coaches can only do so much. The first people to always get the blame are Rick [Eckstein], the hitting coach, and Davey. But when it comes down to it, we’re grown men playing baseball. And when we get to the batter’s box, it’s US up there. And in the end, we’re the ones that have to make the adjustments, we’re the ones that have to get better. They can only tell us so much. We have to go up there and do it, and score runs.”
「沒人比我們更洩氣啦......我們無法做出應有的表現，彷彿被絆住了、施展不開。我們還必須跟媒體以及其他人們應答（你們到底怎麼啦？），但此時此刻，這個世界上沒人比我們更失望、更挫折啦...我們已經做了所有我們所能做的，嘗試要打得更好、得到更多分數。在這種節骨眼，教練也只能做到這麼多了，然而當我們打得不太讓人滿意，每每第一個被抓出來批評、責怪的，卻總是打教Rick Eckstein，還有總ㄟ Davey Johnson... 說到誰該為此負責，當然是我們這些該打好球的大男人啦。」
「當我們走上打擊區，在那兒，我們團結一心，無論結果如何，我們都是一個團隊，一起做出調整、一起變得更好，教練能做的就這麼多，到頭來上場殺敵的還是我們，我們必須大步向前、努力去揮擊、想辦法得更多分數。」
Also, nerds!
「呃，順道一邊把數據衝上去啦。」
（圖：網路；譯：火光飛舞；未經本人同意，不得以任何形式轉載）
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也歡迎路過的朋友們來我的FB個人粉絲團－－「The Dream Field」看看喔！
